Downward Price Trend for Nonferrous Metals

October 24, 2008 · Filed Under Markets

In September 2008, the import price index was up 7.6% on last year’s level. In August and July 2008 this change in rate amounted to an increase of 9.3% respectively. Compared with August 2008, the import price index was down 1%.

The annual inflation rate for imports of energy carriers was rather high in September 2008 (+39%). According to the German Federal Office of Statistics (Destatis), prices dropped by 4.4% (after a drop of 4.2% in the previous month), which is to be attributed to the lower prices for imported crude oil and mineral oil products. Oil prices rose 28.5% against last year, but they fell 9.2% against the previous month (after a decline of 6.4% in August compared with July 2008). Mineral oil products recorded a 26.6% price increase compared with September 2007, prices decreased by 5.8% on the previous month. With an increase of 93% against last year, coal also contributed to the rise in energy prices. Coal prices rose 9.6% on the previous month, a price hike for the sixth consecutive time. Natural gas prices grew by 61.6% against last year. In comparison with August 2008, 3.9% more were charged for imports. In September 2008, the import price index, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, was 4.7% above the level of September 2007 (against August 2008: +0.4%).

The iron ore price hike compared to September 2007 amounted to 63.9%. Against the previous month, prices rose 6.1%. Pig iron, steel and ferro alloys also became more expensive than in the previous month (+15.9%); however, they were 2.0% down on August 2008.

Prices for nonferrous metals and their semi-finished products declined by 11.5% on the previous year (on the previous month: -3.7%). A fall in prices against September 2007 was recorded for raw nickel in particular (-39%). It cost 1.7% less than in the month before. Raw copper and aluminium were also down on the previous year (raw copper: -11.9%, raw aluminium: -4.2%). Prices also sank against August 2008 (raw copper:-4.9%, raw aluminium: -1.4%). Raw lead, zinc and tin were 34.1% cheaper than in 2007, but prices rose 0.6% compared to their August 2008 level.

In the food sector, prices increases were observed for the imports of cacao (+24.4%), citrus fruit (+20.5%) and raw coffee (+5.5%), when comparing September 2008 to September 2007. But prices fell when compared to the previous month (raw cacao: -3%, citrus fruit: -1.2% raw coffee: -1.0%). For beef imports, 15% more than in September 2007 had to be paid (1% less than in the previous month), 14.8% more for pork (1% less than in the previous month) and 5.3% more for poultry (0.5% less than in the previous month).

The development of corn prices was different, falling 14.3% against September 2007. Compared with the previous month, corn imports were 7.2% cheaper. Prices also fell for milk and milk products, by 5.7% against last year and by 1.4% against the previous month. This large decline recorded against last year is partly due to the base effect: in September 2007, corn was up 3% on August 2007; prices for milk and milk products rose 6.7% in the same period.

In September 2008, the import price index was up 2.8% against last year’s index. The annual inflation rates in August and July 2008 were 2.9% and 3.3% respectively. The export price index slightly fell by 0.1% compared with August 2008.